Craps Math Test

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• Craps Math Test
• Craps Math Test

Some of these Dice people are saying they can tell if they are influencing in 100, 200, 500, 700 rolls.
That just doesn't seem legitimate to me and allows for too much luck.

It is the basis for most hypothesis testing in statistics.

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p-values
Many tests use them.
The sample size does not have to be almost infinity or even in the millions.
http://stattrek.com/hypothesis-test/hypothesis-testing.aspx
Of course it still is all about statistical significance levels
Let us use a 300 roll sample size and the binomial probability distribution says (after doing the math for say on-axis control)
that the H_o which is that the results are from a random distribution,
is .001 or .1%
That means that in this 300 sample size
only 1 in 1000 other 300 sample sizes on average would result from a random distribution.
The H_o is rejected saying that the results are not from a random distribution.
The alternative hypothesis says that the results are not from a random distribution.
We accept that at a 99.9% significance level.
Others may and do use lower significance levels.
Most all DIs IMHO use no significance levels, let alone any math,
they just believe basing their skills from what their memory says happened in the past.
Next test
and there could be many.
With DI, every DI has different levels of control over the dice from other DIs
as every one has different hand and finger sizes, not to mention arm lengths,
different style underwear and the color of the hair (or how much hair) they have left on their head.
The proof is in the significance level
If all DIs kept an accurate record of their exact dice rolls, IMO,
over 99% would see they have no influence all the time and just some, sometimes.
Just what variance is all about.
But most all Craps players do not want to do any math let alone care about variance.
Keep it simple
Just win more than you lose.

Finally, can dice control be proven? Yes, you just need the proper tests.
If you have an SRR of 1:6.3 in home practice, you have a slight edge over the house on certain bets.
As your SRR gets better, the edge you have gets better too.
You have to do thousands of rolls – maybe divided into 5,000 roll segments – to see whether you really are influencing the game.

Not necessarily.
In Smart Craps it can be shown with a 99% degree of certainty or higher (it says that in their help file BTW)
in less than 500 rolls what kind and how much control one does have from their sample size.
of course the statistical significance level is more meaningful with a larger or more sample sizes
but what may be statistical significance for one person at say 90% is NOT
statistical significance for another who believes the threshold starts at 99% (1 in 100) not just 1 in 10.
Like SRR.
It used to be the 'golden value' of 6.3
But it has a higher statistical significance over a larger sample size
Just look at the 1 In column

rolls	hits	miss	SRR or Higher	Prob %	1 In
300	47	253	6.383	35.4778855281%	2.82
600	95	505	6.316	31.4321759232%	3.18
900	142	758	6.338	25.2923217814%	3.95
3000	476	2524	6.303	12.4430150297%	8.04
6000	952	5048	6.303	4.9246413768%	20.31
9000	1428	7572	6.303	2.1062440709%	47.48
20000	3174	16826	6.301	0.1218354858%	820.78
30000	4762	25238	6.300	0.0107200388%	9,328.32

Here is for a 6.5 SRR
Much more difficult to attain the more rolls that are made
as a comparison

rolls	hits	miss	SRR or Higher	Prob	1 In
300	46	254	6.52	29.8104016151%	3.35
600	92	508	6.52	20.6775413563%	4.84
900	138	762	6.52	15.1659903396%	6.59
3000	461	2539	6.51	2.8675366135%	34.87
6000	923	5077	6.50	0.3746174613%	266.94
9000	1385	7615	6.50	0.0538674900%	1,856.41
30000	4618	25382	6.50	0.0000001181%	846,801,681.85

The more samples or the greater the sample size, the more confidence we can have.
Some are happy with 50%

Blackjack Math Test

Others laugh at that and say 90%
Others laugh at both, like me and say I wants 99% before I raise an eyebrow.Life of a DI part 1:
So you pass the test... Go to the casino and have an average random shot night... Go back home... Pass the test again... Go to the casino and LOSE... Go back home an pass the test with flying colors.. Go to the casino a lose disastrously... But just before you are about to leave, you have a 25+ roll!!!! And after it you feel great, but alas, you are still in the negative... You are now a dice influencer...
In Golf you can see a significant difference between a amateur and professional.. In football, baseball, bowling, archery... Even in black jack.... But Craps is the only game I've ever seen that a RING amatuer can look EXACTLY like a pro on any given day...

In Golf you can see a significant difference between a amateur and professional.. In football, baseball, bowling, archery... Even in black jack.... But Craps is the only game I've ever seen that a RING amatuer can look EXACTLY like a pro on any given day...

That is simply because DI attempts to gain a SMALL edge over the house.

Craps Math Test

SMALL edges only work in the long run... not the short run where variance dominates.
If you have a proven edge, you get a syndicate together, lots of $$$$ in the bankroll
to survive the bankroll swings as your lifetime drift is upwards
not down as playing against an edge produces.
In reality,
Variance is the TRUE DominatorFrank- Welcome to the forum. Glad you joined.
Heaven knows the forum is seriously lacking dice control threads. Will you and Domenic attend the next dice control circle jerk at Ahighs? Sure to be a bangin' good time!
I'm confident you can pick up a few new students for your dice control scaminars if you stick around long enough. One tip though- if Keyser signs up, be sure to collect his money up front. Out!

I was replying to someone but the post wound up at the end here.

This site seems to lack 'thread view' -- it's only 'flat view.' Perhaps the 'reply' on the individual posts is there in anticipation of eventual thread view capability.
It's probably best to respond by clicking the 'quote' button and deleting the unrelated parts of the quote.

Some of these Dice people...

Craps Math Test

Well, that single phrase certainly explains a lot.

Just the fact that the dice control question has to
asked, has to be tested, and has people who are
so vehemently opposed to it, means it probably
doesn't exist. Nobody is asking if a bullseye can
be hit with a gun 10 times in a row, thats easily
proven. Why isn't dice control? This isn't Big Foot,
we have dice and dice throwers in captivity, fricking
TEST THEM already so we can stop talking the
thing to death.....

the dice controllers don't want to blow their cover......once found out, it's back to the salt mines